DMV LOCAL RECAP: Food Prices Could Face More Pressure in 2027

If your grocery bill already has you doing a double take at checkout, economists are warning that additional pressure on food prices could be ahead.

J.P. Morgan researchers say a rapidly developing El Niño combined with higher energy costs and disruptions to fertilizer supplies could contribute to increased global inflation in 2027. The bank estimates El Niño alone could add roughly 0.7 percentage points to global food inflation, with the combined effects of energy, fertilizer and packaging costs potentially pushing that impact even higher.

Fertilizer has become a major part of the conversation. Conflict involving Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have affected global fertilizer supply chains. J.P. Morgan notes that more than 36% of globally imported urea, a major nitrogen fertilizer, comes from the Persian Gulf. Higher fertilizer costs can eventually affect farmers’ production expenses and crop yields.

The Trump administration has already taken action aimed at lowering some fertilizer costs. In June, President Donald Trump temporarily suspended certain duties on phosphate fertilizer imported from Morocco for up to eight months. The administration said the move was designed to increase fertilizer availability and provide relief to American farmers.

The concerns come as food safety is also making headlines. The FDA continues to investigate a major multistate Cyclospora outbreak linked to iceberg lettuce sourced from central Mexico. As of Aug. 13, the outbreak included 9,481 reported illnesses and 398 hospitalizations. The FDA says the recalled lettuce should no longer be available in stores or restaurants.

For DMV families, the developments are another reason to keep an eye on grocery prices heading into 2027. While widespread food shortages are not being predicted, weather extremes, energy costs and agricultural supply disruptions could make keeping the kitchen stocked more expensive.